Provision Forecast Lead

The Provision Forecast Lead coordinates the development and distribution of credit provision expense projections for managerial forecasts, stress testing, and strategic planning exercises, including portfolio acquisitions and capital expenditure proposals that expand the Bank’s lending business.

The role focuses on the creation, governance and distribution of provision expense projections across the bank’s business lines and lending portfolios under various scenarios, partnering closely with executive risk management, financial forecasting and credit modeling teams. The Forecast Lead works with various contributors to ensure projections for credit loss and ACL changes are supported through effective estimation, review and challenge procedures and credit forecast deliverables meet management’s expectations.

Responsibilities
• Serve as the primary credit contact for assigned finance and treasury customers, ensuring consistent delivery of credit forecast updates, including documentation and delivery of all ACL and provision estimates for annual stress testing exercises.
• Develop and maintain effective communications to executive management, business line management and corporate finance management on credit changes.
• Support delivery of baseline loss forecast and monthly / ad-hoc scenario sensitivity analyses as requested by management.
• Own the Qualitative Estimation Approach (QEA) to estimate, document and deliver the CECL forecast across multiple scenarios.
• Collaborate with internal credit partners (model development and implementation, portfolio risk managers, ACL leadership team) to align projections with portfolio performance and emerging risks.
• Deliver provision expense estimates for strategic plans and capex proposals
• Coordinate periodic review and updates of business line segment provision results, including quarterly results for externally reported financial results by business line.
• Ensuring alignment of provision projections with portfolio credit quality and mix indicators, underwriting standards, and effects of economic conditions, as relevant.
• Monitor business line credit projections reviews and industry trends to identify market conditions, credit trends, and emerging risks affecting the credit outlook.
• Maintain documented methods, procedures and controls for provision projections consistent with the bank’s model risk governance policies and regulatory requirements.

Basic Qualifications
- Bachelor's degree, or equivalent work experience
- Typically more than 10 years of applicable experience

Preferred Skills/Experience 

- Effective presentation, verbal and written communication skills

- Data visualization skills working with Power BI, Excel or similar tools

- Ability to work effectively with individuals and groups in generating credit forecasts and explaining drivers of results

- Advanced degree in relevant field

- Ability to assess business risks related to credit loss forecasts

- Understanding of key financial and credit performance ratios

- Knowledge of bank lending products, lending structures and risk management models

- Familiarity with financial reporting systems such as Hyperion Essbase or equivalent

This role requires working from a U.S. Bank location three (3) or more days per week.