Monte Carlo Project Risk Analyst

Manifest Solutions is currently seeking a Monte Carlo Project Risk Analyst for a remote position. Must reside in one of the following states: OH, TX, LA, OK, WV, VA, IN, MI, KY, AR, TN.

• Develop and maintain probabilistic cost and schedule risk models for capital projects.
• Define appropriate uncertainty ranges, probability distributions, assumptions, and correlations for cost and schedule variables.
• Perform Monte Carlo simulations to quantify potential project cost and schedule outcomes.
• Analyze simulation outputs, including P50, P80, and P90 cost forecasts and completion dates.
• Assess project contingency requirements based on quantitative risk analysis.
• Identify and evaluate key risk drivers, sensitivities, and contributors to cost and schedule uncertainty.
• Integrate quantitative analysis with project risk registers, cost estimates, schedules, and risk-management processes.
• Work closely with project controls, estimating, scheduling, engineering, finance, and project-management teams to validate model assumptions and inputs.
• Review project estimates and schedules to identify areas of uncertainty and potential exposure.
• Support development of risk-adjusted project forecasts and recommendations for management decision-making.
• Prepare clear, concise reports, dashboards, presentations, and risk-analysis summaries for project stakeholders and leadership.
• Facilitate risk workshops and collaborate with subject-matter experts to identify, quantify, and prioritize project risks.
• Maintain documentation of modeling assumptions, methodologies, simulation results, and risk-analysis conclusions.
• Support ongoing monitoring of project risks and update quantitative models as project conditions change.

Required Qualifications

• 3+ years of experience in project risk analysis, cost risk analysis, schedule risk analysis, project controls, or a related discipline.
• Demonstrated hands-on experience performing Monte Carlo analysis for project cost and/or schedule risk.
• Experience developing probabilistic cost and/or schedule models, including uncertainty ranges, probability distributions, and correlations.
• Experience interpreting Monte Carlo results, including P50/P80/P90 forecasts, contingency requirements, risk drivers, and sensitivity analyses.
• Working knowledge of capital-project estimating and project scheduling.
• Experience working with project risk registers and quantitative risk analysis methodologies.
• Strong analytical, problem-solving, and data-interpretation skills.
• Ability to translate complex quantitative risk results into clear recommendations for project teams and leadership.
• Strong written and verbal communication skills.

Preferred Qualifications

• Experience with Primavera Risk Analysis.
• Experience with Primavera P6 and/or other enterprise scheduling tools.
• Experience supporting large-scale capital programs, construction, engineering, infrastructure, energy, utilities, or industrial projects.
• Experience integrating cost estimates, schedules, risk registers, and quantitative risk models.
• Familiarity with project controls, earned value, forecasting, and contingency management.
• Experience facilitating project risk identification and quantification workshops.
• Bachelor's degree in Engineering, Construction Management, Finance, Economics, Mathematics, Statistics, Project Management, or a related field.

Core Competencies

• Quantitative Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis
• Monte Carlo Simulation
• Probabilistic Modeling
• Cost Estimating
• Schedule Risk Analysis
• Project Controls
• Risk Registers
• Risk Quantification
• P50 / P80 / P90 Forecasting
• Contingency Analysis
• Sensitivity & Risk-Driver Analysis
• Primavera Risk Analysis
• Primavera P6
• Capital Project Risk Management
• Stakeholder Communication