Trader Global Prediction Markets (HK/UK)

Location: Hong Kong / London

We are a hedge fund seeking an experienced Trader to focus on global prediction and event-driven markets, including political, macroeconomic, geopolitical, and sports-related outcomes. This role centers on identifying and capturing alpha in probability-based markets, managing portfolio-level risk, and executing across regulated and exchange-based prediction platforms (e.g., Kalshi-type venues) and related instruments.

The ideal candidate has a strong background in sports or event-driven trading, a deep understanding of probability pricing, and experience operating in fast-moving, information-driven markets.

• Generate and execute trading strategies across global prediction markets spanning political, macroeconomic, geopolitical, and selected sports events
• Price and evaluate binary and multi-outcome contracts using quantitative and probabilistic frameworks
• Manage portfolio exposure, risk limits, and capital allocation across correlated event outcomes
• Identify structural inefficiencies, mispricings, and cross-market arbitrage opportunities
• Monitor real-time information flows, liquidity conditions, and sentiment shifts in news-driven environments
• Integrate prediction market positioning into broader macro and cross-asset portfolio context
• Refine forecasting models and probability calibration processes
• Partner with quantitative, research, and technology teams to improve execution, automation, and analytical infrastructure
• Track regulatory and structural developments impacting prediction markets globally
• Deliver performance attribution and risk reporting to senior management

• 3+ years of experience in sports trading, event-driven trading, prediction markets, derivatives, or related hedge fund environments
• Strong understanding of probability-based pricing, risk-adjusted return optimization, and capital efficiency
• Demonstrated ability to manage exposure in volatile, news-driven markets
• Excellent quantitative and analytical skills with disciplined risk management
• Experience working with exchange-based or regulated event markets preferred
• Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Economics, Mathematics, Statistics, or related quantitative field
• Programming proficiency (Python/SQL) strongly preferred
• Ability to operate independently and make high-conviction decisions under time pressure
• Flexibility to align with global event calendars