Hobbyist / Statistical Forecaster (AI Research Project)

This role is for one of our clients

A leading AI research team is seeking independent forecasters to contribute to a project focused on enhancing machine reasoning and predictive performance. Ideal for individuals active in forecasting platforms or competitive prediction markets who want to apply their forecasting skills toward improving next-generation AI systems.

Key Responsibilities

• Generate structured, probability-based forecasts across domains such as economics, finance, geopolitics, and global trends
• Document reasoning, assumptions, data sources, and statistical logic behind each forecast
• Use models, heuristics, and analytical frameworks to inform predictions
• Collaborate with a global network of forecasters and AI research contributors
• Provide feedback on forecast prompts, evaluation criteria, and question design

Ideal Qualifications

• Active forecaster on platforms such as Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, Numerai, Kaggle, etc.
• Competitive forecasting record, leaderboard ranking, or documented tournament performance
• Strong understanding of statistical thinking, probabilistic modeling, and uncertainty analysis
• Ability to clearly express reasoning and methodologies in writing
• Self-motivated, analytical, and intellectually curious

Project Details

• Fully remote, asynchronous work — set your own schedule
• Expected time commitment: 10–20 hours per week

Compensation & Terms

• Compensation range: $105–140 per hour (U.S.-based candidates)
• Independent contractor engagement